If Trump only had a fiddle

Trump: "Why should I do a debate? I'm leading in the polls."

Polls released on 4, 5, 6 & 7 August. None excluded.

This is what you might call stabilization.

Trump's only good day in the last week was the economy's worst day. Regrettably for him, the "Kamala Crash" lasted only one day; the markets also stabilized yesterday and, as I write, both the Dow and S&P are again in the black.

As noted in the previous post, GOP leaders and party strategists are nagging him to cease his middle-school routine of ad hominem bombardments and focus instead on policy differences. Alas, there are three problems with this advice.

One is that Trump has pretty much gutted the Republican Party of doctrines and even just plain, everyday political ideas — all that fussy, monotonous stuff of domestic and foreign policies; what used to be the two-sided stuff of presidential campaigns, party contrasts and all that. 

Another problem with the policy-vacant urgings of GOP leaders is that the Democratic Party chose to retain, modify in places and then advance public policies. And many of them attract voters. Challenging it is in politics to effectively trash, for example, school lunches for all and bridges that don't collapse.     

The third and perhaps only insurmountable problem for what's left of the wistfully policy-oriented GOP is that Trump knows what makes him a "real man" in the eyes of the base is to behave exactly like the middle-school jackass he is. His market stabilized a decade ago — at the cesspool's bottom. Policy debates are for wusses. 

Sure enough, as I put the last period on the preceding paragraph, this came in from Politico Playbook PM: On "Fox & Friends" this morning, Trump "steer[ed] clear of policy contrasts." Instead he said his opponents are "communists" and Kamala was "very insulting to Jewish people" in bypassing Gov. Josh Shapiro for the veep slot. 

He's just warming up; by Friday Kamala will be a vicious anti-Semite. Trump's verbal assaults will become more preposterous and personally offensive by the day. That's what the base is addicted to and therefore demands — and that's the one thing he knows. To abruptly stray from this path would destroy him, as it would the base. Withdrawal from his venom would be fatal. 

From these GOP problems shall proceed the GOP's denouement. Although the base loves the nominee's narcotic hatefulness, most voters do not. How do I know this, or rather, how can I write this as fact not opinion?    

Take another look at all the blue above. The color won't change but the numbers in it will. They'll get bigger.

Comments

[Anne J]

I hope you're right about that last part. Is there a difference in the reliability of national polls vs. state polls?

One day, one way or another, Trump will be gone. Gone from trying to recapture the white house if death by KFC doesn't get him first. Someone is going to have to take over the republican party eventually. It might be interesting to see where republicans are post Trump, but I doubt they will be in a better place.

[VoiceOfReason]

Anne, like Han Solo and the ton-ton, they'll discover that the bloated corpse of Trumpism smells worse on the inside. They'll be trying to crawl out of that purifying carcass for decades to come.