More than a Silver lining

In Nate Silver's poll tracking, the difference between 4 Aug. and 5. Aug. is two-tenths of one percent. Here's Sunday's, which he labeled, "The streams have crossed." 

But it's a two-tenths gain in Harris' favor. Monday:

You probably noticed that the first graph is of a head-to-head matchup, while the second includes RFK Jr. So these aren't precise comparisons. Nevertheless, they're enough for Silver to note a trend:

"Harris rose again in our forecast today [Monday]; in the span of a week, she’s gone from a 37 percent chance of winning the Electoral College to a 53 percent chance. The race is still a toss-up for all intents and purposes, but if you’re sweating the details, you’d rather have the 53 percent side of a bet than the 47 percent half."

Comments

[Anne J]

Was that poll with RFK Jr. included taken before or after the story of what he did to that poor dead bear cub came out?