This morning the right is probably celebrating and the left, as it were, might well be disconsolate. For there was no joy from Chicago, mighty Kamala stuck out. So says the latest YouGov poll.
The highest of top-line numbers from YouGov suggests a) there was no bounce from the DNC convention and b) Harris-Walz has slipped from their recent 4+ averages. I can't swear that both are untrue, not without seeing polls yet to come. But there is a strong likelihood that Chicago's bounce is unrepresented in this poll and Harris' averages have not suddenly taken a dive.
YouGov surveyed registered voters only, while other polling operations have moved on to surveying likely voters. I's the latter, by and large, that have improved Harris' numbers. Still, Yahoo News, which commissioned the poll, reiterates a reality that does disconcert, year upon year: The survey is "a sign of how polarized the U.S. remains, and how fixed Americans’ political allegiances have become."
Other findings from YouGov are encouraging. Harris' favorability is up, her performance rating as vice president is up, and when respondents were asked to describe each candidate in a word, "the most frequently chosen" for Harris were those such as "honest" and focused," while Trump's were "dishonest," "chaotic" and — the power of communications — "weird."
On the downside, only 16% of Americans at large see Harris as moderate. (In 2020, 28% said that of candidate Biden.) Again, such is the power of communications; Trump's unrelenting slanders of Harris-Walz as "communist" and Soviet-like have taken hold in the popular mind. In American politics there are few daggers quite as sharp as the immoderate one. If there is consolation, it's that Trump's moderate score is 11%.
Yahoo News' lede is peculiar. I can only guess that its reporter was trying to avert cases of sudden clinical depression among Democrats who saw nothing but the 1+ statistic. "Americans now think Vice President Kamala Harris has a better chance of winning the November election (39%) than former President Donald Trump (36%)." Such is the opening of Yahoo's report.
In sum, the YouGov survey appears to be something of a wasted effort and expense. The presidential contest is now roughly a two-month race in duration, too close to Election Day to be polling registered, not likely, voters. On the other hand, Yahoo News is regrettably correct in reinforcing the sad state of the U.S. electorate.
The partisan armies are about evenly matched — a dispiriting and perilous state, considering that one of the forces is halfwittingly in support of an authoritarian state. Hence the battle is likely to go down to the wire, with nerves rattling along the way.
What is the reliability rating of Yahoo news polls?
Posted by: Anne J | August 28, 2024 at 12:09 PM
High, Anne. 2.9 of 3.0.
Posted by: PM | August 28, 2024 at 01:16 PM