Today's political weather: It's raining polls

Before proceeding, see Addendum, at bottom. Added two hours later after posting. 

RealClearPolitics overlooked this Reuters/Ipsos poll. More important than the topline number is the finding that Trump's lead over Harris on the economy and crime has shrunk to insignificance and invisibility. On the economy, he led by 11 points a month ago, now his lead is 3%, which is in the MoE. On crime, his lead is precisely a tie, with voters preferring both candidates by 40%. Harris trailed by 5 in July. 

As for Ipsos' national polling of registered voters, Harris leads 45% to 41%. Ipsos is rated 2.8/3.0 by 538.

The USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll finds Harris ahead of Trump nationally by 5 points. USA's headline, which I've shortened and added emphasis, is either enchanting or enchanted, your choice, mine is the latter: "Harris surges ahead of Trump."  

What's better than the 5-point lead? The Suffolk poll (2.9/3.0) is of likely voters. What's more, the university has announced that all its surveys from now till the election will be such. The slightly higher result for Harris reflects this greater reality.  

Key findings, from USA: "The vice president's small lead was fueled by big shifts among some key demographic groups ... including Hispanic and Black voters and young people. Among those with annual incomes of less than $20,000, in the biggest change, a three-point Trump edge over Biden in June has become a 23-point Harris advantage over Trump in August."

This YouGov poll was commissioned by the Economist. Yesterday I posted YouGov's polling results for Yahoo News. My "issues" with this poll are twofold; again, registered voters were surveyed rather than likely voters; and the registered account for 88% of responses, not all responses. (On page 117 of the poll's full results it is noted that 1,555 U.S. citizens were surveyed, among whom 1,368 were registered to vote.) The topline statistic:

The empty space after "Kennedy" (Suffolk's, too) is puzzling in a Why-did-they-bother? way. Since he's no longer a candidate, the only polling done on RFK Jr. was on his favorability.

As a conscientious citizen concerned about your mental health, before relating his favorability stat I am obligated to remind you that Americans were surveyed, many of whom spend a good deal of their time on planet Bizarro. They would no more be familiar with the humongous oddities of Bobby Kennedy Jr. than I am with the intricacies of Guatemalan lesbians' sex life, although I'd love to learn.

OK, now that I've braced you for the almost unbelievable, here it is, the man's favorability number: 41%. That's a combination of "very favorable," 12%, and "somewhat favorable," 30%. In addition to my yearning to learn more about Guatemalan lesbians, I'm every bit as interested in knowing what the 30% found "somewhat" appealing about Bobby. Was it that he only pretended to eat a barbecued dog? That he kinda likes bears? The 12% are of no interest. They reside full-time on planet Bizarro.  

Considering all of today's polls, it does appear that Kamala Harris' nominating convention failed to give her the usual bounce. That's disturbing, but it also strikes me as inexplicable, so I won't venture mere guesses as to why.  

Yesterday, Fox News released its poll of battlegrounds. Noted FoxNews.com's headline, "Harris closes gap with Trump in Sub Belt states." She's doing better there than Biden did, anyway. Fox commissions Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for its polling, which is highly rated, 2.8 of 3.0. It results: 

These states remain a textbook definition of the jitters. The numbers are unlikely to rise until Harris' national polling of likely voters reaches at least 7+.  

***

Addendum. Reader Anne J. remarked below, "Do you really think she will go above +7? I'm just not seeing it."

I took a look at the polling average for Biden vs. Trump, just before Election 2020. So yes, you bet it's possible. Unfortunately, the graph was cut short, but candidate Biden came in at nearly 52% to Trump's 43, rounding both. 

Comments

[VoiceOfReason]

I'm finding it hard to square the Arizona POTUS polling, where Kamala has a scant 1 point lead, with the AZ Senate race, where Reuben Gallego is trouncing Kari Lake by a whopping fifteen points. Even if different polling strategies and margins of error are considered, these results are highly divergent. I can't tell whether this is the result of AZ Republicans being unwilling/afraid to say they're not voting for Trump, or whether Trump's known disdain for Lake makes them drop her. But I note that a pro-choice amendment is on the ballot there this fall, and whenever a pro-choice amendment is on the ballot, the GOP loses. So I'm hopeful that Harris's lead in AZ is larger than it appears.

[PM]

My guess, VoR, is that this is a lag from Biden's candidacy, when he was taking something of a beating while Democratic pols in swing states were leading by large margins. And I hope my use of "lag" is prophetic.

[Anne J]

Do you really think she will go above +7?

I'm just not seeing it. This close to election day, I don't like these nail biter polls.

[VoiceOfReason]

Here's hoping the Lake Effect buries him in Arizona, PM.

[ssdd]

Back when it was Biden v Trump, polling was basically static, no matter what happened. Even the debate debacle barely dented Biden’s numbers. I chalked this up to the fact that 2024 was a rerun of 2020. Everyone had already decided between these two candidates years ago, and the small number on either side who were switching horses this year more or less cancelled each other out.

I think that dynamic is still largely playing out, which is why you didn’t see a convention bounce for Harris. That’s not to say she can’t move the needle; she can and is. But it’s going to be a slog, imho.

[PM]

Anne, if you're checking back here, see "Addendum" to post.

[PM]

Good point about the —bounce, ssdd. (p.s., that was a minus sign.) About your last point, I may be wildly wrong but I'm thinking it's Trump who's moving Harris' needle the most. I won't say she isn't driving some significant measure of it, yet DJT is now the one committing oodles of unforced errors. And voters are beginning to remember, just as Biden said they would.

[Anne J]

Thank you for the addendum, it definitely calmed me down a bit. And I agree with you. Not just DJT, but also JDV are moving Harris' needle just by being the foul human beings they are. Neither one of them can help themselves.

[ssdd]

Oh, Trump is definitely doing himself no favors. I hope he keeps on blowing toes off right through the election!