(Editorial note: From here on out I'll post only 538's more reliable polling operations — those that score at least 2.0 out of a 3.0 under its ranking categories, which will scrub the interruption of each poll's rating and your having to tolerate the interruptions. I hope you find this to be an improvement.)
In accord with my beloved Walt and his wisdom, I give you the headline finding from YahooNews/YouGov's poll, released over the weekend. As the graph notes, this result came from registered voters. Among the likely to vote, Harris leads with about the same, 49% to 45%.
The news outlet attributes Harris' showing to the 10 Sept. debate. (I find this curious, since her numbers were generally the same before the debate). "Nearly half of those familiar with the debate, in fact, say Trump delivered a poor performance (48%), while a clear majority (58%) say Harris’s performance was either excellent or good," writes Yahoo.
The downside? Trump's awful performance and Harris' win statistic of 58% has not of yet come close to matching her 4-point, likely voter lead. On the other hand, some serious, positive fundamentals appear to be in play.
Perhaps the most encouraging of YouGov's findings is that Harris inverted her support among independents: Pre-debate she was 9 points down ( 35% to 44%) in this group; post-debate, she's leading by 10 points, 47% to 37%.
The also weekend-released ABC News/Ipsos poll showed an identical Harris result from the debate, and a near-matching disharmony between it and Harris' lead. As I noted above, "It remains to be seen whether Tuesday’s spectacle will move the needle," observes ABC News.
Mostly in line with YouGov, Ipsos found Harris leading by 51% to 47% among registered voters, and 52%-46% among the likely. What was the "likely" finding before the debate? 52%-46%.
Although the last stat for Harris lies in the fog of standard margin errors, it is the first +6 I've seen for Harris. Ten days ago I wrote "I can't recall so much as one +6, which would be closer, realistically, to triumphing in America's antique and irrational method of choosing a president." I have now, even if it's little more than psychological comfort.
Yesterday The Washington Post updated the battleground states' status. The paper writes that it will continue doing so "at least once per day." I'll limit mine to maybe once a week. Let's run the bases with WaPo.
The Iowa poll is consistent with one that came out the other day here in Indiana. There’s been very little polling, but last March Trump was up by 21 (over Joe of course) iirc, in the latest he was up “just” 10. (The polls are on 538’s Indiana page if you care to look.) don’t get me wrong, I think Trump will win both states easily, but the margins may be smaller than expected.
Posted by: ssdd | September 16, 2024 at 05:20 PM
Yeah but it's pretty tight here in Illinois, ssdd. Harris so far squeaking by with +16. Penn's latest polling is interesting — 2 evens and a +3 from respectable pollsters. And those are no jokes.
Posted by: PM | September 16, 2024 at 05:35 PM
Haha yeah I’m pretty sure Harris will squeak by in Illinois. I hear that Chicago is already setting up drop boxes in all the cemeteries! Penn is going to be a nail biter again. I recently had occasion to drive across it again on a visit out east, and had forgotten the weird warping of spacetime that makes the distance from its east and west borders 4x the distance from the Earth to the sun. God I hate Pennsylvania.
Posted by: ssdd | September 16, 2024 at 08:38 PM
And, as Carville said, with Alabama in between.
Posted by: PM | September 16, 2024 at 09:07 PM