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« No help for the geese of Springfield? [Updated] | Main | A U.S. attorney general to die for. And we just might. »

September 20, 2024

Comments

Tom Benjamin

I don’t think any of the polls or even polling averages can be trusted. Partly this is simply relatively new barriers to the science of polling. It is very difficult to find a random sample these days. Furthermore, even honest pollsters are having problems defining likely voters in a post Dobbs environment. (Note that Dems have outperformed polls consistently since Roe was overturned. I suspect that this is because unlikely - to the pollsters - voters actually voted.)

So there are reasons to distrust the polls even if they are conducted honestly. It has become obvious that many - perhaps most - are not. Polling averages are influenced by a large number of Republican polls. It is a cheap way to keep races appear close or even lean red. Even the mainstream media has an interest in producing polls that are close because a close race generates more interest and more eyeballs.

Does it matter that Nate Silver is now funded by Peter Thiel? I think so, but your mileage may vary.


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