Nate Silver's +3 for Kamala nationwide, and (nervous) leads in the Big Three

Nate Silver's latest national average, with a handy update on swing states, also Florida, Texas and Minnesota. 

For those of you curious about which pollsters Nate included in this averaging, here they are. He has his reasons for including Rasmussen, which is consistently skewed to the right — I'm just not sure I know what they are. Perhaps to counterbalance polls skewed to the left? Or he has more confidence in Rasmussen than I do? 

Comments

[Tom Benjamin]

I don’t think any of the polls or even polling averages can be trusted. Partly this is simply relatively new barriers to the science of polling. It is very difficult to find a random sample these days. Furthermore, even honest pollsters are having problems defining likely voters in a post Dobbs environment. (Note that Dems have outperformed polls consistently since Roe was overturned. I suspect that this is because unlikely - to the pollsters - voters actually voted.)

So there are reasons to distrust the polls even if they are conducted honestly. It has become obvious that many - perhaps most - are not. Polling averages are influenced by a large number of Republican polls. It is a cheap way to keep races appear close or even lean red. Even the mainstream media has an interest in producing polls that are close because a close race generates more interest and more eyeballs.

Does it matter that Nate Silver is now funded by Peter Thiel? I think so, but your mileage may vary.