A poisoned plan for Gaza

In Peter Beinart's interview with Hussein Agha, a former Israel-Palestine negotiator and fellow at Britain's Chatham House, the guest led off with a "scoop" about the ceasefire agreement based on information he had received from some of the people involved in drafting the plan.

Aside from learning about the sort of round-robin technique used in piecing the agreement together, what I heard from Mr. Agha was essentially what I had already surmised about the Israel-Hamas plan, a plan with Trump's name on it.

There was nothing magical or wizardly inherent in my confident conjecture about this Trump plan. I merely envisioned a reality borne out by every plan that has ever touched down while carrying the overlaid name of Trump. That reality being: indistinct assertions wrapped in multilayers of obscurity colored in unintelligible ambiguities.

Trump can then spin the plan's consequences in any direction he likes. You know the routine. If success occurs — invariably, because of others' activities — he grabs all the credit. If the plan turns to shit, he begins pointing his stubby little fingers at every poor bastard who actually labored in bringing hope to fruition.   

Let's move on to Mr. Agha's remarks. Netanyahu knew he had arrived at a dead end, he had been unable to fulfill his promise of wholly subjugating Hamas. He needed an alternative. He also knew it couldn't be an Israeli plan — the reason, self-evident. It had to be an American plan. And so negotiations were not between Israel and the U.S., said Agha; they involved the U.S., Turkey and Qatar.

Turkey and Qatar, he continued, told Hamas, Don't worry about guarantees, do what we tell you to do, and leave it to us. Turkey and Qatar then told the U.S., Don't worry about Hamas, we'll take care of Hamas, all you have to do is take care of Bibi Netanyahu.

The upshot of Agha's remarks was that this circular style of talks was more effective than past, bilateral negotiations. Such previous talks failed because major powers plopped "grand ideas" on the table which soon "fizzled out," related Agha, because they were insurmountably contentious, e.g., Gaza's demilitarization.

Of equal bearing was that these negotiating powers had no direct national interests in a peaceful Gaza. And so, having confronted failure, they could simply pack up, go home, and take care of business that did matter. But, for Qatar it was different this time, said Agha.

There was its $400 million "gift" of a broken-down plane to Trump, or rather, an inexpensive bribe by its royal families worth $335 billion; a NATO-like security guarantee by Trump for its authoritarian state; and now Qatar's very own air force base in, as only Hegsethian logic could dictate, the state of Idaho. The U.S., interests in the Levant.

From here? asked Agha. His answer, same as mine, just as clear from the get-go as from here Trump plans always are: a bust, a fiasco. Another fiasco.

"It is only stage one," what Netanyahu wanted, he said. But stages two, three and four? "First they are vague; second, as a result they are open to interpretation; third, there is no agency specified for carrying them out; fourth, there is no agency to tell whether you're doing the right thing or not — there's nobody you can go to and say, Oh listen these people did this, this is wrong, we cannot do it. They do not exist.

"And they do not exist for a very simple reason," added the old hand at negotiations. "Nobody expects to get meaningfully to these other stages. There will be movement, there will be discourse about this, there will be language about moving and doing this and doing that. But take the demilitarization of Gaza. Who's going to do that?"

Interjected Beinart, "So it's not going to happen." Hamas doesn't disarm, Israel doesn't withdraw, and the tiny Gaza Strip — nothing but bombed-out wreckage, "home" to two million Palestinians — is then "cut in half" by an occupying force at the ready behind an insubstantial buffer zone.   

Of course it won't happen. I'll lay that bet down alongside Agha and Beinart's. It won't happen because the overhyped Trump plan contains poison pills ensuring its death. And Palestinians, as always, will be the only ones who suffer.

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Cross-posted in Substack.