The shutdown showdown

Say what you will about the dubious state of American politics. But one thought is common to all fair-minded people: This nation is becoming great again because of the teemingly civil, come-let-us-reason-together voice of its White House occupant.

The Democrats want Illegal Aliens, many of them VIOLENT CRIMINALS, to receive FREE Healthcare. The Democrats want $500 Million Dollars to help Radical Left News Outfits. The Democrats want to leave DEAD PEOPLE on Medicaid and Social Security rolls, so that Criminals can continue to be allowed to receive that payment, and steal their money. The Democrats want to cut Billions of Dollars from our once vulnerable Rural Hospitals. The Democrats want men playing in women’s sports, "Transgender" for EVERYBODY, Open Borders and, perhaps most importantly of all, a five letter word, CRIME (They like it, and we don’t!), and so many other things that will destroy America. We cannot let this happen!

I redacted only one parenthetical passage from Trump's thoughtful summation of Democratic wants. "We fixed [rural hospitals] by giving them the largest Cash infusion, EVER!" True, stashed into Republicans' Big Beautiful Bill is $50 billion for just that. Problem is, they also extracted nearly 18 times that amount from rural hospitals' lifeblood — Medicaid — which helped make the bill enormously ugly to Democrats.

Aside from wanting violent criminals, dead people and the chronically shiftless to keep their free healthcare, Democrats are so afraid for the future of Medicaid-starved rural hospitals — which by and large serve the opposition's real American base — they're willing to shut the government down until Republicans restore the funds. In other words, once again it's up to Democrats to bail out Trump's voters.

The Dems are also opposed to the BBB's elimination of enhanced Obamacare subsidies, which went a long way in making health insurance affordable for nearly 20 million Americans last year. On average, those covered by the Affordable Care Act saved about $700 in premiums. Among the covered, more than 90% qualified for enhanced subsidies, guaranteed by 2022 Democratic legislation through the end of this year.   

The word devastating is not uncommonly used in today's politics. Once hyperbolic and overused, the word is now a veritable understatement used with a frequency inadequate to the Trump party's nationally traumatizing depredations. You want devastating beyond endurance? Potentially, your life? Try this on:

The Bulwark's Jonathan Cohn noted yesterday that if the GOP's liquidation of higher Obamacare subsidies is allowed, a family of four earning $60,000 a year would see their current $100 monthly premium hiked to $326. A 60-year-old couple with a $45,000 income would see theirs go from $117 to $283. And in states where ACA premiums are already costlier, such as West Virginia, the monthly outlay for married 60-year-old real Americans on an $80,000 income would soar from $566 to roughly $3,600.

Or not. Because close to four million Americans would necessarily cancel their ACA coverage (says the Congressional Budget Office), leaving them forced into Republicans' BBB healthcare plan, subtitled Hope for the best. Or, the Dems will shut down the government, counter-forcing Republicans' restoration of both Medicaid's proper funding and Obamacare's enhanced subsidies.

Which leads me to Paul Krugman's commentary this morning, submitted as he wings his way to Europe, Western civilization's last refuge. I agree with most of what he writes. About the consequences he anticipates, I don't exactly disagree; rather, I'm reminded of my opening sentence, the one touching on the "dubious state of American politics." Says Krugman:

I’m surprised that Republicans didn’t decide to keep the enhanced, Biden subsidies in place for another year [only a year], just to delay the pain until after the midterms. But they didn’t, probably because they have such a strong aversion to helping Americans in need that they couldn’t even bring themselves to play cynical politics on the issue. This aversion to doing anything decent is why the government will probably shut down Wednesday.

What will happen then? I have no idea. But I think the Democrats made the right choice when they made health insurance premiums — rather than, say, tariffs — their key demand. Why? Because doing so puts the onus for rising premiums squarely where it belongs — on Republicans. If Democrats weren’t putting this issue front and center, the usual suspects might be able to convince many voters that someone else — immigrants, Antifa, George Soros, whatever — was responsible for their soaring health costs. That will be much harder now.

Yes, Republicans are decency-averse; so much so, even their titanic political cynicism couldn't halt their opportunistic rush to screw everyday Americans. That came with the White House's added frisson of faking the BBB's massive "debt bomb" as deficit reductions of $2 trillion. And yes, I agree, Democrats have chosen correctly, they'll triumph or die on the hill of healthcare. Acting empirically, it's that second consequence that hoists my flag not of despairing surrender, just dubiousness.

Research conducted by the University of Michigan's School of Public Health found "that even when state Republicans chose not to expand Medicaid—which ultimately led to worse outcomes for rural hospitals—voters blamed Democrats and the Affordable Care Act for their experiences." We've seen this before, too many times: "Republicans can actually benefit politically from decisions that make things worse for their voters, while Democrats get penalized despite passing policies that objectively help similar communities."

What applied to Medicaid's non-expansion could next apply to Medicaid's barbaric mugging by Republicans, as well as their killing of the ACA's increased subsidies. In short, the now seemingly even broader electorate's upside-down ragging on the very party trying to help Americans might again cost its members a penalty.

The history's not wrong. I hope I am.

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This piece is cross-posted in Substack.